A fully integrated financial model projecting Kesko Corporation's Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow Statement over a 5-year horizon (2025E–2029E).
Built with industry-standard methodology used in investment banking, equity research, and corporate finance.
This model analyzes Kesko Corporation (OMX Helsinki: KESKO), Finland's largest retail conglomerate operating across three segments:
| Segment | 2024 Revenue Share | Business |
|---|---|---|
| Grocery Trade | 58% | K-Group stores, Kespro foodservice |
| Building & Technical Trade | 32% | Onninen, K-Rauta |
| Car Trade | 10% | K-Auto dealerships |
The model enables scenario analysis for investment decisions, valuation, and strategic planning.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ ASSUMPTIONS │
│ Revenue Growth │ Margins │ OpEx │ Working Capital │ CapEx │
└────────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────────────┘
│
┌──────────────────┼──────────────────┐
▼ ▼ ▼
┌─────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────┐
│ INCOME STATEMENT│ │ BALANCE SHEET │ │ CASH FLOW STMT │
│ │ │ │ │ │
│ Revenue │◄┼─Receivables/ │ │ Net Income ────►│
│ COGS │ │ Inventory/ │ │ D&A ───────────►│
│ Gross Profit │ │ Payables │ │ ΔWorking Cap ──►│
│ SG&A │ │ │ │ │
│ D&A ───────────►│─┼─►PPE │ │ CapEx ─────────►│
│ EBIT │ │ │ │ │
│ Interest ◄──────┼─┼──Debt │ │ Dividends ─────►│
│ Tax │ │ │ │ │
│ Net Income ────►│─┼─►Retained Earn. │ │ ΔCash ─────────►│
└─────────────────┘ └─────────────────┘ └─────────────────┘
│
▼
┌─────────────────┐
│ KEY METRICS │
│ ROE │ ROIC │ FCF│
└─────────────────┘
All three statements are dynamically linked — change any assumption and projections update automatically.
- Individual revenue growth rates and operating margins for each business unit
- Consolidated financials with segment contribution visibility
| Category | Drivers |
|---|---|
| Revenue | Segment growth rates (%) |
| Profitability | Segment operating margins (%) |
| Operating Costs | SG&A as % of revenue, D&A as % of revenue |
| Working Capital | DSO, DIO, DPO (days) |
| Capital Structure | Interest rate, Tax rate |
| Capital Allocation | CapEx as % of revenue, Dividend payout ratio |
- Debt functions as the "plug" to ensure Assets = Liabilities + Equity
- Built-in balance check row for model integrity verification
- Blue cells = Editable inputs
- Green cells = Cross-sheet references
- Black cells = Formulas and calculations
The model calculates key financial metrics used in equity analysis:
| Metric | Description |
|---|---|
| Operating Margin | EBIT / Revenue |
| Net Profit Margin | Net Income / Revenue |
| ROE | Net Income / Shareholders' Equity |
| ROA | Net Income / Total Assets |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | Leverage ratio |
| Free Cash Flow | Operating Cash Flow − CapEx |
kesko-financial-model/
├── Kesko_Three_Statement_Model.xlsx # Main Excel model
├── README.md # Documentation
└── assets/
└── model_screenshot.png # (optional) Model preview
- Open the Excel file and navigate to the
Assumptionssheet - Modify blue cells to test different scenarios:
- Increase grocery segment growth to model market share gains
- Adjust margins to stress-test profitability
- Change CapEx intensity to model expansion plans
- Review outputs in Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow sheets
- Analyze metrics in the Key Metrics sheet
| Scenario | Key Changes |
|---|---|
| Bull Case | +1% revenue growth across segments, +0.5% margin expansion |
| Base Case | Management guidance assumptions |
| Bear Case | −2% revenue growth, margin compression from competition |
Data Source: Kesko Corporation FY2024 Annual Report
Methodology:
- Revenue projections based on segment-level growth assumptions
- Working capital modeled via days outstanding methodology (DSO/DIO/DPO)
- CapEx as percentage of revenue, consistent with historical averages
- Debt calculated as balancing figure to maintain accounting identity
Tools Used:
- Python (openpyxl) for model generation
- LibreOffice Calc for formula validation
- Excel-compatible with full formula preservation
This model was built as part of my portfolio demonstrating financial modeling capabilities. I'm a CFA candidate with a background in software engineering, combining quantitative finance skills with technical expertise.
Model structure developed with AI assistance; assumptions, methodology, and validation performed independently.
Contact: GitHub @gq23401
This project is available for educational and portfolio demonstration purposes. The underlying financial data is sourced from publicly available company reports.
Built with precision. Designed for analysis.